School Place Planning & Capacity Mapping

Good school place planning starts with accepting that pupil numbers rarely move evenly. One part of a county has new housing and oversubscribed schools, while another has falling rolls and half-empty classrooms. Some trusts are ready to grow, while others are stretched. Getting school places right is one of the most important decisions an authority or trust makes, and it is understandable that leaders want a clearer picture before committing capital, staff, or reputations.

Our school place planning and capacity mapping service gives local authorities and trusts a clear, data-driven view of where capacity exists, where it is needed, and what to do about it. Below, we explain how it works.

What is school place planning and capacity mapping?

Capacity mapping brings together data on pupil numbers, school capacity, forecasts, housing growth, travel, and preference to show how supply and demand for places compare across an area, now and in the years ahead. It can also map other kinds of capacity, such as specialist SEND places, alternative provision, or the leadership and school improvement capacity of trusts to take on more schools.

The result is a shared, visual picture that helps leaders see the pressures and opportunities clearly, and make well-evidenced decisions about expansion, reorganisation, new provision, or managing surplus places.

Who is school place planning support for?

It is designed for local authority school organisation and place planning teams, multi-academy trusts planning growth or responding to falling rolls, and dioceses reviewing their schools. It is particularly useful ahead of decisions about new schools, expansions, amalgamations, or admissions and pupil number strategy, and alongside SEND sufficiency planning.

What does our school place planning service include?

We tailor the work to your area and questions, but a typical piece of work covers:

• Analysis of current pupil numbers, capacity, and surplus or shortfall by planning area
• Review and testing of pupil forecasts, including housing and migration assumptions
• Mapping of travel patterns, preferences, and cross-border movement
• Specialist SEND and alternative provision capacity, where in scope
• Trust capacity mapping for growth, including leadership and school improvement capacity
• Scenario modelling for expansion, reduction, or new provision
• Consideration of the impact on school viability, quality, and families
• Clear maps, visual summaries, and a report with options and recommendations

How does school place planning help your authority or trust?

How our school place planning works

• We agree the scope, planning areas, and questions with you.
• We gather and check the data, working with your existing forecasts.
• We analyse and map capacity and demand.
• We model scenarios and test them with your team.
• We deliver a report, maps, and recommended options.

What you get at the end

• A clear capacity map by planning area or trust
• Tested forecasts and scenarios
• Options appraised for impact on places, quality, and viability
• A report and summary suitable for members, boards, and consultation

Key features of our service

Data with education insight
Analysis interpreted by people who have led schools and trusts and understand the consequences of each option.

Independent view
An impartial picture that schools, trusts, and authorities can all work from.

Clear and visual
Findings presented so that busy decision-makers can act on them.

Frequently asked questions about school place planning

How do local authorities forecast pupil numbers?

Forecasts usually combine birth data and GP registrations, current pupil numbers moving through year groups, housing development, migration, and parental preference patterns. Testing the assumptions behind a forecast is as important as the numbers themselves.

What can be done about falling rolls?

Options include reducing published admission numbers, federating or sharing leadership, repurposing space for specialist or early years provision, and in some cases amalgamation. The right answer depends on local need, school viability and the impact on children and families.

What is capacity mapping?

Capacity mapping shows where places, or other kinds of capacity such as specialist SEND places or trust leadership capacity, exist compared with need across an area. It turns complex data into a visual picture leaders can act on.

Can multi-academy trusts commission place planning analysis?

Yes. Trusts use place planning analysis to plan growth, respond to falling rolls, prepare for local authority discussions and test proposals such as expansions. Individual schools may also find our admissions and pupil number strategy support useful.

How does place planning link to SEND sufficiency?

Mainstream and specialist places affect each other. More inclusive local mainstream provision and resource bases can reduce pressure on special schools, so we can combine place planning with a SEND sufficiency strategy.

Why choose Jarvis Education for school place planning?

We work with local authorities, trusts, and schools of every type, including specialist and alternative provision. Our founder is a former His Majesty’s Inspector, and our associate consultants bring leadership, trust growth, and local authority experience. We combine careful analysis with a practical understanding of what place decisions mean for children, families, and the schools that serve them.

Next steps & how to get started

• Speak to one of our experts. Tell us about the pressures in your area or trust and the decisions ahead.
• Once we agree the scope, we confirm everything in writing and agree the data we need.
• Contact us today to discuss school place planning and capacity mapping.
• We are ready to support you in planning places with confidence.